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中国货币政策规则的估计与比较 ——基于DSGE模型的分析
id: 2209
Date: 20131205
status: published
Times:
Author
岳超云, 牛霖琳
Content
本文在DSGE模型框架下用贝叶斯方法对中国货币政策的利率规则和数量规则进行了估计，并比较了不同货币规则模型对数据的解释和预测能力，提供了货币规则随中国货币政策调控机制改革演化的证据。本文发现数量规则比利率规则在整体上更能解释中国的货币政策，但是利率规则的解释能力随着利率市场化改革的深入而逐渐提高，此外在利率规则中加入货币因素能显著提高模型对数据的解释和预测能力。
JEL-Codes
F822
Keywords
货币政策规则 DSGE 贝叶斯方法
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